Law in Failure: HSEY Cost

 

What HSEY means

HSEY means human-suffering-equivalent year. I used it in the earlier calculation as a common unit for different forms of human harm, including:

• Physical pain and disability
• Fear, grief, depression, anxiety, and PTSD
• Loss of independence or normal function
• Humiliation, loss of privacy, and violation of autonomy
• Damage to relationships and family life
• Lost opportunity to work, learn, parent, socialize, or enjoy life
• Healthy years eliminated by premature death

It is not an established government or medical acronym. It is a modeling device created for this crime-burden analysis. Its closest established counterpart is the quality-adjusted life year, or QALY. The CDC defines one QALY lost as the equivalent of losing one year of life in perfect health.

The difference is that a QALY normally emphasizes health-related quality of life, while HSEY is deliberately broader. HSEY also includes grief, terror, humiliation, damaged relationships, loss of safety, and other suffering that may not appear adequately in a medical quality-of-life score.

How HSEY is calculated

For each category of harm:

$$\text{HSEY}= \text{number affected} \times \text{probability of harm} \times \text{duration in years} \times \text{severity}$$

The severity weight runs from 0 to 1:

• 0.00: no meaningful suffering or impairment
• 0.10: mild burden
• 0.25: moderate burden
• 0.50: severe loss of well-being or function
• 0.75: extreme suffering or disability
• 1.00: complete loss of normal well-being and function for the period measured

For example:

$$10{,}000\text{ victims}\times0.50\text{ year}\times0.40 =2{,}000\text{ HSEY}$$

Thus, 10,000 people suffering at 40% severity for six months collectively lose the equivalent of 2,000 full healthy years.

One HSEY can also be understood as:

• One person suffering at 100% severity for one year
• Two people suffering at 50% severity for one year
• Ten people suffering at 10% severity for one year
• 365 people each suffering at 100% severity for one day

It measures equivalent aggregate burden, not a claim that the experiences are psychologically identical.

HSEY previously calculated for the crime model

The previous analysis estimated:

Component	HSEY
Original physical, psychological, functional, family, and mortality burden	18.30 million
Additional dignity, autonomy, privacy, and relational injury	0.67 million
Total	18.97 million HSEY

Cost using the original valuation

The earlier calculation used:

$$\$600{,}000\text{ per HSEY}$$

Therefore:

$$18.97\text{ million}\times\$600{,}000 =\boxed{\$11.382\text{ trillion}}$$

The breakdown is:

Component	HSEY	Value at $600,000
Original burden	18.30M	$10.980T
Additional dignity and relational harm	0.67M	$0.402T
Total	18.97M	$11.382T

At this valuation, one full-suffering-equivalent day is worth:

$$\$600{,}000\div365=\boxed{\$1{,}644}$$

Updated calculation using the 2026 HHS benchmark

HHS’s 2026 regulatory-analysis values use $726,000 as the central value of one QALY for health-related quality-of-life changes occurring in 2026. HHS also provides lower and higher values for sensitivity analysis.

Treating one HSEY as approximately equivalent to one QALY lost for monetary valuation—not for clinical measurement—produces:

$$18.97\text{ million}\times\$726{,}000 =\boxed{\$13.772\text{ trillion}}$$

The updated breakdown is:

Component	HSEY	Value at $726,000
Original burden	18.30M	$13.286T
Additional dignity and relational harm	0.67M	$0.486T
Total human-suffering value	18.97M	$13.772T

At $726,000 per HSEY, one full-equivalent day of suffering is valued at:

$$\$726{,}000\div365=\boxed{\$1{,}989}$$

Sensitivity range

Using HHS’s low, central, and high QALY values on a 3% valuation basis gives:

Valuation per HSEY	Total value of 18.97M HSEY
Low: $339,000	$6.431 trillion
Central: $726,000	$13.772 trillion
High: $1,105,000	$20.962 trillion

The $13.8 trillion central estimate is therefore the best current monetized value under the HHS-based method. The former $11.382 trillion estimate remains the appropriate figure when preserving the original $600,000 assumption.

Average burden per offense

Across the modeled 2.741 billion statutory offenses:

$$18.97M\div2.741B=0.006921\text{ HSEY per offense}$$

That equals approximately:

$$0.006921\times365=\boxed{2.53\text{ full-suffering-equivalent days per offense}}$$

At the HHS central valuation:

$$\$13.772T\div2.741B =\boxed{\$5{,}025\text{ of suffering per offense}}$$

At the original $600,000 valuation, it equals approximately $4,152 per offense.

This is only an aggregate average. It does not mean every drug sale, computer intrusion, theft, assault, rape, or homicide creates the same suffering. Minor offenses may produce almost none, while murder, rape, child abuse, severe battery, and catastrophic fraud may produce many HSEYs from a single offense.

Recommended final statement

The modeled 2.741 billion annual statutory offenses impose an estimated 18.97 million human-suffering-equivalent years, representing physical pain, psychological injury, disability, grief, loss of autonomy, damaged relationships, and premature death. Using the 2026 HHS central valuation of $726,000 per equivalent healthy life-year, the human suffering has a monetary welfare value of approximately $13.8 trillion per annual crime cohort, with a sensitivity range of $6.4 trillion to $21.0 trillion.

This is a welfare-equivalent value, not money literally spent or destroyed. It should remain separate from the estimated direct economic burden. Adding the entire $13.8 trillion to medical expenses, lost earnings, and other economic costs without an overlap adjustment would double count some consequences.