Law in Failure: HSEY Cost

 

What HSEY means

HSEY means human-suffering-equivalent year. I used it in the earlier calculation as a common unit for different forms of human harm, including:

• Physical pain and disability
• Fear, grief, depression, anxiety, and PTSD
• Loss of independence or normal function
• Humiliation, loss of privacy, and violation of autonomy
• Damage to relationships and family life
• Lost opportunity to work, learn, parent, socialize, or enjoy life
• Healthy years eliminated by premature death

It is not an established government or medical acronym. It is a modeling device created for this crime-burden analysis. Its closest established counterpart is the quality-adjusted life year, or QALY. The CDC defines one QALY lost as the equivalent of losing one year of life in perfect health.

The difference is that a QALY normally emphasizes health-related quality of life, while HSEY is deliberately broader. HSEY also includes grief, terror, humiliation, damaged relationships, loss of safety, and other suffering that may not appear adequately in a medical quality-of-life score.

How HSEY is calculated

For each category of harm:

$$\text{HSEY}= \text{number affected} \times \text{probability of harm} \times \text{duration in years} \times \text{severity}$$

The severity weight runs from 0 to 1:

• 0.00: no meaningful suffering or impairment
• 0.10: mild burden
• 0.25: moderate burden
• 0.50: severe loss of well-being or function
• 0.75: extreme suffering or disability
• 1.00: complete loss of normal well-being and function for the period measured

For example:

$$10{,}000\text{ victims}\times0.50\text{ year}\times0.40 =2{,}000\text{ HSEY}$$

Thus, 10,000 people suffering at 40% severity for six months collectively lose the equivalent of 2,000 full healthy years.

One HSEY can also be understood as:

• One person suffering at 100% severity for one year
• Two people suffering at 50% severity for one year
• Ten people suffering at 10% severity for one year
• 365 people each suffering at 100% severity for one day

It measures equivalent aggregate burden, not a claim that the experiences are psychologically identical.

HSEY previously calculated for the crime model

The previous analysis estimated:

Component	HSEY
Original physical, psychological, functional, family, and mortality burden	18.30 million
Additional dignity, autonomy, privacy, and relational injury	0.67 million
Total	18.97 million HSEY

Cost using the original valuation

The earlier calculation used:

$$\$600{,}000\text{ per HSEY}$$

Therefore:

$$18.97\text{ million}\times\$600{,}000 =\boxed{\$11.382\text{ trillion}}$$

The breakdown is:

Component	HSEY	Value at $600,000
Original burden	18.30M	$10.980T
Additional dignity and relational harm	0.67M	$0.402T
Total	18.97M	$11.382T

At this valuation, one full-suffering-equivalent day is worth:

$$\$600{,}000\div365=\boxed{\$1{,}644}$$

Updated calculation using the 2026 HHS benchmark

HHS’s 2026 regulatory-analysis values use $726,000 as the central value of one QALY for health-related quality-of-life changes occurring in 2026. HHS also provides lower and higher values for sensitivity analysis.

Treating one HSEY as approximately equivalent to one QALY lost for monetary valuation—not for clinical measurement—produces:

$$18.97\text{ million}\times\$726{,}000 =\boxed{\$13.772\text{ trillion}}$$

The updated breakdown is:

Component	HSEY	Value at $726,000
Original burden	18.30M	$13.286T
Additional dignity and relational harm	0.67M	$0.486T
Total human-suffering value	18.97M	$13.772T

At $726,000 per HSEY, one full-equivalent day of suffering is valued at:

$$\$726{,}000\div365=\boxed{\$1{,}989}$$

Sensitivity range

Using HHS’s low, central, and high QALY values on a 3% valuation basis gives:

Valuation per HSEY	Total value of 18.97M HSEY
Low: $339,000	$6.431 trillion
Central: $726,000	$13.772 trillion
High: $1,105,000	$20.962 trillion

The $13.8 trillion central estimate is therefore the best current monetized value under the HHS-based method. The former $11.382 trillion estimate remains the appropriate figure when preserving the original $600,000 assumption.

Average burden per offense

Across the modeled 2.741 billion statutory offenses:

$$18.97M\div2.741B=0.006921\text{ HSEY per offense}$$

That equals approximately:

$$0.006921\times365=\boxed{2.53\text{ full-suffering-equivalent days per offense}}$$

At the HHS central valuation:

$$\$13.772T\div2.741B =\boxed{\$5{,}025\text{ of suffering per offense}}$$

At the original $600,000 valuation, it equals approximately $4,152 per offense.

This is only an aggregate average. It does not mean every drug sale, computer intrusion, theft, assault, rape, or homicide creates the same suffering. Minor offenses may produce almost none, while murder, rape, child abuse, severe battery, and catastrophic fraud may produce many HSEYs from a single offense.

Recommended final statement

The modeled 2.741 billion annual statutory offenses impose an estimated 18.97 million human-suffering-equivalent years, representing physical pain, psychological injury, disability, grief, loss of autonomy, damaged relationships, and premature death. Using the 2026 HHS central valuation of $726,000 per equivalent healthy life-year, the human suffering has a monetary welfare value of approximately $13.8 trillion per annual crime cohort, with a sensitivity range of $6.4 trillion to $21.0 trillion.

This is a welfare-equivalent value, not money literally spent or destroyed. It should remain separate from the estimated direct economic burden. Adding the entire $13.8 trillion to medical expenses, lost earnings, and other economic costs without an overlap adjustment would double count some consequences.

Law in Failure: Other Costs of 2.7 Billion Crimes

 

Estimated additional cost of the collateral consequences of crime

For the 2.741-billion-offense scenario used in the earlier calculation, I would assign the following additional costs. These are modeled estimates, not official federal totals. Published sources establish the existence and scale of the underlying harms, but no government dataset measures all twelve categories nationally. BJS itself recognizes fear, blight, lost investment, social-service burdens, long-term victim harm, wrongful convictions, and punishment-related consequences as indirect costs of crime.

All figures are rounded to approximately 2026 dollars. The ranges are sensitivity ranges, not statistical confidence intervals.

#	Additional damage	Central estimate	Plausible range	Accounting treatment
1	Precaution, avoidance, and lost freedom	$450 billion	$250–700B	Recurring economic cost
2	Lifelong and intergenerational human-capital loss	$350 billion	$200–700B	Lifetime present value generated by one year’s crimes
3	Loss of trust and social capital	$250 billion	$100–500B	Recurring economic and institutional loss
4	Community decline and municipal fiscal spiral	$125 billion	$50–250B	Recurring cost; excludes property markdown
5	Business, consumer, and innovation losses	$400 billion	$200–800B	Recurring economic cost
6	Victim recovery and administrative time	$100 billion	$50–200B	Recurring time and productivity cost
7	Dignity, autonomy, privacy, and relational injury	$400 billion	$100–900B	Welfare equivalent, not ordinary resource loss
8	Secondary trauma outside the immediate family	$60 billion	$25–150B	Treatment, turnover, absenteeism, and lost function
9	Collateral harm caused by the justice response	$200 billion	$100–400B	Economic spillover; excludes justice-system operating costs
10	Environmental, animal, ecological, and cultural harm	$75 billion	$20–200B	Mixed resource and nonmarket loss
11	Future crimes induced or financed by present crime	$300 billion	$100–700B	Present value; not a recurring annual add-on
12	Distributional damage and increased inequality	$260 billion	$90–430B	Welfare adjustment, not resource destruction
	Raw sum before overlap correction	$2.970 trillion	$1.285–5.930T	Cannot all be added directly

1. Precaution, avoidance, and loss of freedom: $450 billion

A measurable core already exceeds approximately $100 billion:

• About 1.283 million security guards multiplied by a mean annual wage of $42,470 produces approximately $54.5 billion in guard payroll.
• Security-system services generated approximately $28.3 billion in annual revenue in the available Census series.
• About 182,800 information-security analysts multiplied by median pay of $124,910 produces a rough payroll proxy of $22.8 billion.

Those three anchors total approximately $105.6 billion before security management, cameras, locks, alarms, armored transportation, fraud departments, cybersecurity software, identity monitoring, insurance administration, lighting, fencing, background checks, and household security expenses.

I then assign:

• $102 billion for broader equipment, technology, overhead, and uncovered security labor.
• 5.2 billion precaution and avoidance hours at the March 2026 private-sector compensation rate of $46.60 an hour, or approximately $242 billion.

That produces approximately:

$$\$105.6B+\$102B+\$242B=\boxed{\$450B}$$

This includes time spent monitoring accounts, changing passwords, securing property, avoiding locations, taking longer routes, supervising children more closely, and abandoning otherwise desirable activities.

2. Lifelong and intergenerational human-capital loss: $350 billion

CDC estimated the lifetime economic burden associated with child abuse and neglect occurring in 2018 at approximately $592 billion. Updated CDC work places the lifetime cost of one nonfatal child-maltreatment case at more than $830,000 in 2015 dollars.

That total includes categories already represented elsewhere, such as health care, criminal justice, immediate lost productivity, and reduced quality of life. Therefore, I do not add the entire $592 billion.

The $350 billion central estimate represents the remaining long-term cost of:

• Reduced education
• Lower lifetime earnings
• School disruption
• Impaired parenting and relationships
• Additional caregiving
• Employment instability
• Effects on children exposed to household crime or parental incarceration
• Transmission of disadvantage to another generation

The National Academies finds that parental incarceration can create family economic hardship and adverse social, psychological, and educational effects for children.

CDC’s much broader estimate of a $14.1 trillion annual burden associated with adverse childhood experiences is not used here because it includes noncriminal adversity and a large valuation of lost healthy life years that would overlap with the separate human-suffering ledger.

3. Loss of trust and social capital: $250 billion

The central estimate assigns a loss equal to approximately 0.8% of annual GDP:

$$0.008 \times \$30.762T=\boxed{\$246B}$$

Rounded, that is $250 billion. The low and high cases use approximately 0.3% and 1.6% of GDP. BEA’s annual series places 2025 current-dollar GDP at approximately $30.762 trillion.

This represents:

• Transactions abandoned because people no longer trust one another
• Reduced cooperation with police and courts
• Lower willingness to testify or report crimes
• More costly contractual verification
• Reduced investment in unstable areas
• Corruption premiums
• Lower civic participation
• Reduced confidence in institutions and property rights

Research associates victimization, insecurity, corruption, and conflict with lower institutional trust. The World Bank also identifies effective justice and rule-of-law institutions as important to private investment, service delivery, reduced corruption, and sustained development.

The 0.8% assumption is a model allocation—not a published national measurement.

4. Community decline and municipal fiscal spiral: $125 billion

The central assumption is approximately 0.4% of GDP:

$$0.004 \times \$30.762T=\boxed{\$123B}$$

Rounded, this is $125 billion.

It covers:

• Lost local sales and business-tax revenue
• Lower property-tax collections after residents and businesses leave
• Vacant-building inspections
• Fire and demolition costs
• Illegal-dumping cleanup
• Additional sanitation and code enforcement
• School security
• Shelter and social-service pressures
• Deferred infrastructure and public maintenance
• Higher municipal borrowing costs in seriously deteriorating areas

GAO has found that vacant and abandoned properties can reduce nearby home values, lower tax receipts, increase public-safety problems, and impose maintenance and demolition costs on local governments.

This category excludes the earlier 15% real-estate markdown, because adding property-value losses again would double count them.

5. Business, consumer, and innovation losses: $400 billion

The central estimate is approximately 1.3% of GDP:

$$0.013 \times \$30.762T=\boxed{\$400B}$$

The $200–800 billion range corresponds approximately to 0.65%–2.6% of GDP.

This category excludes direct stolen property, direct fraud losses, and the security expenditures assigned to item 1. It includes:

• Businesses closing early or leaving markets
• Lost operating days after cyberattacks or violence
• Delayed expansion
• Abandoned investments
• Fewer stores, pharmacies, banks, and delivery services
• Higher lending and insurance risk premiums
• Fraud-related payment restrictions
• Reduced tourism
• Lost customer confidence
• Lower employee recruitment and retention
• Less convenient products and services
• Innovation forgone because new systems would be too vulnerable to exploitation

World Bank firm research illustrates the mechanism: crime can raise security costs, divert working capital, restrict operating hours, and make firms less likely to expand. That study was not a U.S. national estimate, so it supports the channels rather than the exact $400 billion figure.

6. Victim recovery and administrative time: $100 billion

The central calculation assumes 2.15 billion hours annually devoted to:

• Police and court appearances
• Insurance claims
• Bank and credit-card disputes
• Replacing identification and documents
• Recovering accounts and data
• Protective-order proceedings
• Relocation
• Repair estimates
• Medical and counseling appointments
• Custody, housing, employment, and benefit proceedings

Valued at $46.60 per hour:

$$2.15B\ \text{hours}\times \$46.60=\boxed{\$100.2B}$$

The range of $50–200 billion corresponds to approximately 1.1–4.3 billion hours.

As an older but useful anchor, the FTC’s national identity-theft survey estimated nearly 300 million hours spent resolving identity theft alone, with serious new-account fraud cases frequently requiring much more time than ordinary cases.

This category values time even when it does not produce a recorded wage loss. A retired person, caregiver, or student still loses time that could have been used productively or enjoyably.

7. Dignity, autonomy, privacy, and relational injury: $400 billion

This is best treated as an addition to the human-suffering ledger, not as lost GDP.

I assign an additional 670,000 human-suffering-equivalent years for:

• Sexual or bodily violation
• Humiliation and degradation
• Loss of privacy
• Fear inside one’s own home
• Permanent exposure of intimate images or personal records
• Destruction of reputation
• Loss of trust in intimate relationships
• Loss of personal control and autonomy
• Altered willingness to form relationships or participate in society

For a dollar translation, I use a rounded $600,000 per HSEY:

$$670,000\times \$600,000=\boxed{\$402B}$$

HSEY is not identical to a quality-adjusted life year, but the value is close to the central value per QALY used in HHS regulatory-analysis materials. HHS’s standard-values spreadsheet projected a central 2026 value of approximately $602,000 per QALY in its earlier update, while the 2026 guidance continues to use a QALY valuation framework.

The correct reporting is therefore either:

• $400 billion of welfare-equivalent loss, or
• 670,000 additional HSEY

It should not be counted in both forms. If the earlier 18.3-million-HSEY estimate already included these injuries, only the portion previously omitted should be added.

8. Secondary trauma outside the immediate family: $60 billion

The central calculation is:

• 1.5 million significantly exposed professionals, witnesses, coworkers, classmates, or community members, multiplied by an average $20,000 combination of treatment, absenteeism, turnover, and impaired function: $30 billion
• Approximately 650 million additional hours of lost work, care, and recovery time at $46.60 per hour: approximately $30 billion

Total:

$$\$30B+\$30B=\boxed{\$60B}$$

First-responder studies report substantially elevated PTSD prevalence, although estimates vary by occupation, event, and study design. NIJ research also documents substantial continuing emotional distress following victimization.

This category excludes the immediate family suffering already included in the earlier human-suffering calculation.

9. Collateral harm produced by the criminal-justice response: $200 billion

At year-end 2023, approximately 5.53 million people were under adult correctional supervision, including about 1.85 million incarcerated and 3.77 million under community supervision.

The central estimate assigns:

• Average lost production, employment restrictions, and household burden of $20,000 per currently supervised person:

$$5.53M\times \$20,000=\$110.6B$$

• An additional $89 billion for:
  • Post-supervision employment barriers
  • Housing and occupational-license exclusions
  • Family separation
  • Childcare and transportation burdens
  • Wrongful or unnecessary detention
  • Reduced lifetime earnings
  • Reentry instability
  • Public support required by affected families

Total:

$$\$110.6B+\$89.4B=\boxed{\$200B}$$

The National Academies reports that employment can fall approximately 10%–20% following incarceration, with similar adverse wage effects. GAO identified hundreds of federal collateral consequences for nonviolent drug convictions, many lacking a clear relief mechanism.

This $200 billion does not include police, court, prison, prosecution, or supervision budgets already included in the earlier criminal-justice cost. It also does not mean that all punishment is unjustified. It records the collateral cost of the response; a complete policy analysis would compare that cost with the crimes prevented through incapacitation, deterrence, treatment, and supervision.

10. Environmental, animal, ecological, and cultural damage: $75 billion

Available measurable anchors include:

• More than $78 billion in compliance and injunctive-relief commitments associated with EPA enforcement cases over 2011–2021, or approximately $7.8 billion a year, although not all involved criminal conduct and compliance cost is not identical to damage.
• FBI estimates that annual art and cultural-property crime losses may reach approximately $8 billion.
• Invasive species cost the United States more than $21 billion annually in one federal estimate, although only a fraction can be attributed to criminal importation, trafficking, or unlawful releases.

The $75 billion central estimate adds:

• Illegal dumping and hazardous-waste cleanup
• Illegal mining, logging, fishing, and wildlife trafficking
• Water and soil restoration
• Lost ecosystem services
• Fire and flooding consequences
• Destruction of animals and wildlife populations
• Loss of archaeological and historic property
• Cultural and religious objects that cannot be replaced
• Long-term monitoring and health protection

Because animal suffering, species loss, and destruction of unique cultural objects have no complete market price, this is partly a welfare-equivalent estimate rather than a conventional accounting cost.

11. Future crimes caused or financed by present crime: $300 billion

For the central estimate, I assign a 7% future-crime multiplier to the earlier $4.368 trillion net resource cost:

$$0.07\times \$4.368T=\boxed{\$306B}$$

Rounded: $300 billion.

The range uses approximately 2.5%–16%:

$$\$109B\text{ to }\$699B$$

This represents:

• Retaliatory offenses
• Repeat victimization
• Gang recruitment
• Copycat conduct
• Witness intimidation
• Criminal proceeds reinvested in trafficking, weapons, corruption, or cybercrime
• Criminal conduct learned or normalized within households and organizations

BJS found that 83% of a studied cohort of released state prisoners was arrested during nine years, accumulating nearly two million arrests. This establishes a strong repeat-offending mechanism, but it does not establish that every later offense was caused by the earlier offense.

GAO and DOJ also recognize that illicit proceeds can be returned to criminal enterprises and that money laundering permits criminal organizations to survive and expand.

This must not be added to every year of a steady-state annual crime total. It is the present value of future harm attributable to the current year’s crime cohort.

12. Distributional damage and increased inequality: $260 billion

The earlier calculation treated approximately $1.729 trillion in stolen or criminally transferred money as transfers rather than destroyed resources.

That is appropriate for national accounting, but it does not account for the fact that:

• A $1,000 loss can devastate a poor household.
• The corresponding $1,000 gain may create much less additional welfare for the recipient.
• Poor victims have less insurance, savings, legal assistance, transportation, and ability to relocate.
• A single loss can trigger eviction, missed medication, job loss, utility termination, or high-cost debt.

I therefore apply a 15% distributional welfare premium:

$$0.15\times \$1.729T=\boxed{\$259.35B}$$

Rounded: $260 billion.

The range applies a 5%–25% premium:

$$\$86B\text{ to }\$432B$$

BJS found violent-victimization rates of approximately 39.8 per 1,000 people in poor households compared with 16.9 per 1,000 in high-income households during the studied period—more than twice the rate.

The 15% factor is a normative welfare adjustment, not an official government coefficient. It should not be called lost GDP.

Correct total after preventing double counting

The raw central sum is:

$$\boxed{\$2.970\text{ trillion}}$$

But the whole amount cannot be added to the earlier economic estimate.

Items 1–6 and 8–10 are potentially additive economic or economic-equivalent costs:

$$\$450B+\$350B+\$250B+\$125B+\$400B+\$100B+\$60B+\$200B+\$75B =\$2.010T$$

Trust, business withdrawal, community decline, security, secondary trauma, and environmental damage overlap with one another. I therefore apply a 25% cross-category overlap deduction:

$$\$2.010T\times 0.75=\boxed{\$1.508T}$$

A reasonable sensitivity range after overlap is approximately:

$$\boxed{\$0.8T\text{ to }\$2.7T}$$

Revised recurring economic totals

Measure	Earlier estimate	Additional cost	Revised central estimate
Recurring gross economic burden	$6.097T	$1.508T	$7.605 trillion
Recurring net resource loss	$4.368T	$1.508T	$5.876 trillion
First-year gross burden including prior real-estate markdown	$7.323T	$1.508T	$8.831 trillion

The corresponding ranges are approximately:

• Recurring gross: $6.9–8.8 trillion
• Recurring net resource loss: $5.2–7.1 trillion
• First year including the real-estate markdown: $8.1–10.0 trillion

Separate welfare and future-harm additions

The following should remain separately identified:

• Dignity, autonomy, privacy, and relational injury: $400 billion, or 670,000 HSEY
• Distributional and inequality adjustment: $260 billion
• Present value of future crime generated or financed: $300 billion

Adding these to the adjusted recurring economic increment gives a broad current-year-cohort addition of:

$$\$1.508T+\$400B+\$260B+\$300B =\boxed{\$2.468T}$$

This is approximately $900 per offense averaged across the 2.741-billion-offense scenario. The recurring economic portion alone is approximately $550 per offense. Those averages should not be assigned uniformly: a drug transaction, attempted computer intrusion, assault, rape, homicide, environmental offense, and major financial fraud have radically different consequences.

Final result

The best central allocation is:

• $2.970 trillion raw additional collateral damage
• $1.508 trillion defensible recurring economic addition after overlap
• $660 billion additional dignity and distributional welfare loss
• $300 billion present value of induced future crime
• $2.468 trillion broad additional current-year-cohort burden

Accordingly, the prior estimate should be revised to approximately:

• $7.605 trillion in recurring gross economic burden
• $5.876 trillion in recurring net resource loss
• $8.831 trillion in the first year when the earlier real-estate loss is included
• 18.97 million HSEY, rather than 18.3 million, when the additional dignity and relational injuries are represented as 670,000 HSEY rather than as $400 billion

The dollar figure and HSEY figure should remain parallel ledgers. Monetizing all 18.97 million HSEY and then adding that result to these totals would require another explicit overlap correction.