Thursday, September 17, 2026

Law in Failure: Blame the Screen. Bury the Science.

Youth suicide, inherited vulnerability, and the thin-skull shortcut that cannot replace proof

A young person’s suicide is a tragedy. It is not, by itself, proof against a technology company.

A screenshot is not a psychiatric history. A sequence of events is not necessarily a chain of causation. A corporation’s bank balance is not medical evidence.

My objection is to the shortcut: start with a death, identify a platform, and treat the rest of the young person’s life as background noise. That approach risks replacing an investigation with a target—and replacing prevention with blame.

Companies should answer for harm their wrongful conduct demonstrably caused. But neither grief nor anger supplies a missing causal connection. The serious question is not simply which app was used. It is what happened to this person, why, and what could have interrupted the progression toward death.

Investigate the life. Do not just prosecute the screen.

Start with the deaths—not the headlines

Dobin and colleagues’ September 2026 JAACAP review pooled 19 psychological-autopsy case-control samples: 958 suicide deaths and 1,102 community controls, aged 25 or younger. Approximately 70% were male. This is research on deaths, not merely unhappiness or hours online. The age range includes young adults, not only children.

Factor reported in the abstractPooled odds ratio95% confidence interval
Suicidal ideation16.15.0–51.5
Previous suicide attempt14.26.3–31.8
Acute stressful life events13.79.6–19.5
Mood disorders9.95.3–18.2
Substance abuse, using the authors’ terminology8.96.1–12.9

These are the five strongest associations reported in the abstract. They are not absolute probabilities, independent causal shares, or percentages of responsibility for an individual death. The authors interpret the findings as suggesting a more proximal, impulse-driven risk profile. Their category of acute stressful events cannot be relabeled exclusively as relationship problems.

The practical question is what the records show before the death: prior attempts, psychiatric symptoms, substance use, immediate crises, and changes in functioning.

A reconstructed history must distinguish contemporaneous documentation from later inference. The fact that something was remembered after litigation began does not make it false, but its timing and corroboration deserve examination.

The child had a history before the account

Inherited vulnerability is not a footnote. O’Reilly and colleagues’ Swedish family study, involving approximately 2.76 million offspring, supported genetic and environmental contributions to the intergenerational transmission of suicidal behavior. Its genetically informed design also illustrates why an apparent environmental association may be confounded.

Genomic research supports a complex, polygenic contribution to suicidal behavior, with overlap—but not complete identity—with depression and other psychiatric traits. The work by Li and colleagues included suicide deaths and analyses accounting for genetic overlap with depression. It did not establish a single deterministic “suicide gene.”

The clinical investigation should therefore distinguish family history, inherited susceptibility, diagnosed illness, prior suicidal behavior, and documented deterioration. Those are different propositions, not interchangeable labels. The proposed review should ask what was already present, when it began, and how it was expressed.

Genetics belongs in the causal investigation. It is neither destiny nor automatic corporate immunity. Population heritability does not mean that a specified percentage of a particular death was caused by genes. Nor does it establish that the same death would have occurred at the same time without a disputed exposure. These studies provide no individual test of inevitability.

That distinction protects the defense from an avoidable error: using an important scientific finding to make an unsupported legal claim.

ADHD, anxiety, and impulsivity: developmental precision matters

In Sheftall and colleagues’ study, among suicide decedents with known mental-health problems, ADD/ADHD was recorded in 59.3% of children aged 5–11, versus 29.0% of those aged 12–14. Depression/dysthymia showed the reverse pattern: 33.3% versus 65.6%. These describe a subgroup of decedents; they do not identify the proportion of deaths caused by each diagnosis. They make overlooking ADHD in a younger child especially difficult to justify.

Impulsivity also requires precision. A longitudinal study of 10,286 young adolescents associated negative urgency—rash action under distress—and lack of perseverance with later suicidal thoughts and attempts. It did not establish that every measure of impulsivity was equivalent or that every death was unplanned.

Anxiety warrants investigation without exaggeration. A longitudinal meta-analysis found modest associations with subsequent suicidal thoughts and attempts, but no significant pooled association with suicide death. Its findings concerned the measured constructs and follow-up periods, not a conclusion that acute anxiety is irrelevant to every crisis.

Depression and substance misuse cannot be assigned exclusively to adults. Dobin’s youth review found strong associations for both and reported stronger substance- and alcohol-abuse associations than in the adult comparison meta-analysis.

Replacing “the app caused it” with “ADHD caused it” would repeat the same mistake with a different label. The organizing model must be multifactorial.

Relationships are not background noise

Sheftall’s study recorded family-or-friend relationship problems in 60.3% of childhood cases and 46.0% of early-adolescent cases with relevant circumstances available. These are descriptive findings, not relationship-attributable death fractions. They nevertheless support taking the interpersonal history seriously.

The proposed inquiry should examine conflict, rejection, loss, bullying, humiliation, school pressure, abuse, and changes in support.

Was there a crisis? Did it precede heavier online activity? Was the platform the source of harm, a channel through which a dispute unfolded, or a place where preexisting distress was disclosed?

Relationships and technology are not necessarily competing explanations. An online exchange may be part of a relationship crisis. The investigation must test that possibility, not sort the facts into convenient “offline” and “online” boxes.

The answer to scapegoating a company is not scapegoating a family. It is examining the evidence.

Ordinary viewing is weak evidence of individual causation

A 2024 JAMA Pediatrics meta-analysis covering 143 studies and more than one million adolescents found small average associations between social-media use and internalizing symptoms. Those are symptom associations, not estimates of suicide deaths caused by a platform.

Nesi and colleagues distinguished general use frequency from specific online experiences. The limited frequency studies did not show significant associations with the examined outcomes, whereas cybervictimization and problematic use were among exposures associated with self-injurious thoughts and behaviors. This is not a finding that every kind of video or interaction is harmless.

A 2025 JAMA cohort study of 4,285 young people similarly found that total screen time at baseline was not associated with the later outcomes examined, while high or increasing addictive-use trajectories were associated with suicidal thoughts or behaviors and poorer mental-health outcomes. The authors acknowledged that the observational design could not establish causation and that several psychosocial factors were not included.

There is adverse evidence a credible defense must confront. A separate longitudinal study of 11,876 young people found that within-person increases in social-media use preceded greater depressive symptoms. That finding matters; it does not by itself establish platform-specific causation of a suicide death.

The defensible argument is precise: viewing time alone is a weak substitute for a clinically grounded explanation of a death.

A nonsignificant average association does not prove zero risk. A small average association does not cap the possible effect of a particular harmful interaction. And an association involving addictive use cannot be generalized to every ordinary user.

The Dobin abstract does not quantify video viewing, social media, AI, or genetics. An exposure omitted from the abstract cannot be treated as a tested null effect. Its estimates also cannot be divided by a screen-time correlation to manufacture a numerical ranking of causes.

AI is a separate exposure—not a synonym for screen time

Consumer-chatbot testing involving simulated adolescent crises found safety shortcomings and differences between companion chatbots and general assistants. It tested responses under specified conditions; it did not measure a real-world suicide-death rate attributable to AI.

A companion conversation, an automated recommendation, and passive video viewing therefore require separate analysis. The reviewed evidence does not justify importing ordinary screen-time findings as an AI effect-size estimate.

For a case-specific opinion, I would ask what the authenticated exchange actually contained, which historical system generated it, what the user’s clinical course showed, and what mechanism is alleged.

Did the interaction intensify danger, discourage help-seeking, or disclose an existing crisis?

An alarming excerpt is a starting point for investigation, not a completed psychiatric explanation.

The thin-skull shortcut: an eggshell is not evidence

The eggshell-plaintiff rule addresses unusual susceptibility. In Benn v. Thomas, the Iowa Supreme Court required an appropriate instruction where evidence supported an accident-related contribution to death despite preexisting heart disease. The rule can affect proximate cause as well as damages; it is not simply a bookkeeping rule.

But susceptibility does not establish that the defendant inflicted the alleged injury.

The distinction is illustrated by Norman v. Greene, a September 2025 Pennsylvania Superior Court memorandum affirming dismissal where needed expert causation evidence was absent. The court explained that:

“the self-identified status as an eggshell plaintiff would not change the causation analysis.”

It is nonprecedential and was not a suicide case. Nevertheless, it illustrates the distinction between susceptibility and proof of the alleged aggravation.

That is the objection worth pressing: a vulnerable plaintiff is not a substitute for proof of a causal contribution. The eggshell rule cannot be used to answer the factual question by assuming the very aggravation in dispute.

Existing doctrine also recognizes a distinction between susceptibility and independently progressing damage. Koch v. United States discussed responsibility for additional harm and a possible reduction for deterioration that would inevitably have occurred without the accident. The government failed to prove the independent deterioration on that record. Burdens and apportionment rules must be checked under governing law.

A defendant should not be assigned unrelated losses merely because they appear in the same medical history. But alleging that a young person would have died anyway requires evidence, not a genetic label.

Biology does not divide into a courtroom pie chart

Consider a hypothetical in which a severe outcome occurs only when both a vulnerability and a trigger are present.

Remove the vulnerability and the outcome does not occur. Remove the trigger and it also does not occur. Both are necessary in that model; neither fact supplies an 80/20 allocation.

This is why evidence of inherited susceptibility does not logically exclude an external contribution—and why identifying a final external event does not erase the inherited history. The example is a causal model, not a conclusion about any individual case.

The eggshell rule is a rule of legal responsibility, not a scientific claim that biological vulnerability has no causal role. Scientific evidence can expose an unsupported application; it does not automatically invalidate the rule itself. Benn illustrates the legal distinction between an existing condition and an injury superimposed on it.

No fabricated genetic percentages. No presumed platform contribution. No predetermined exoneration.

Expert testimony must survive more than a dramatic timeline

Federal Rule of Evidence 702 requires sufficient facts, reliable methods, and reliable application. Its commentary addresses unjustified extrapolation and inadequate consideration of obvious alternatives. The 2023 amendment clarifies that foundation and application are not invariably questions only of evidentiary weight. Missing one article is not automatically disqualifying; the reliability of the actual opinion is what matters.

Heller v. Shaw Industries is particularly instructive. The Third Circuit upheld exclusion of central causation testimony heavily dependent on a flawed temporal relationship, while rejecting a requirement that a physician eliminate every possible alternative or always produce product-specific published research.

Thus, counsel should test unexplained transitions from distress to death, adults to children, or ordinary use to a specific harmful interaction. But a defense should not demand scientific certainty that the law does not require. Pennsylvania state courts retain Frye general acceptance under their own Rule 702; federal and state standards must not be conflated.

A chronology is evidence. An unexplained causal leap is not made reliable by an impressive résumé.

A focused due-process objection—not a constitutional slogan

The constitutional concern is strongest when directed at an arbitrary presumption or denial of a fair opportunity to contest causation. In Western & Atlantic Railroad v. Henderson, the Supreme Court invalidated the operation of a Georgia presumption concerning negligence and causation under the Fourteenth Amendment.

A proposed analogy would challenge an instruction that turns vulnerability plus death into presumed platform causation despite relevant contrary evidence. That is an argument about a specific procedural defect—not a holding that the eggshell doctrine is unconstitutional. Turnipseed, which upheld a different rebuttable presumption, shows why the actual operation and rational basis of the challenged rule matter.

Nor do punitive-damages decisions establish a general constitutional cap on compensatory liability for unexpectedly severe injury. BMW v. Gore concerned punitive excessiveness; Honda v. Oberg concerned judicial review of punitive awards. Neither declares the ordinary eggshell rule invalid.

The concrete challenge is to liability without the required proof—not to the existence of a vulnerable person.

Preserve the record and match the defense to the claim

Medical causation is not the entire lawsuit. Counsel must identify the defendant, product, challenged conduct, dates, governing law, and elements of the claim. Section 230 addresses treatment as publisher or speaker of another provider’s information, subject to statutory limits. It is not a universal exemption for a company’s own development of information.

Moody v. NetChoice recognizes First Amendment interests in editorial compilation. It does not decide every software-function or product-injury claim. These defenses require product- and claim-specific analysis, separate from a psychiatric opinion.

The proposed evidence review should preserve complete relevant exchanges, metadata, model or product versions, safety controls, and incident records. Federal Rule 37(e) addresses the loss of electronically stored information that should have been preserved. Selectively saving only favorable messages compromises the investigation.

Discovery of family and medical information should be lawful and proportionate, with suitable protective orders. Rule 26 also distinguishes expert-disclosure obligations and qualified protections for certain consulting work. Calling a widely distributed proposal “privileged” does not make it so.

Finally, later publications must not be confused with earlier notice. A paper published in September 2026 cannot, merely by appearing then, prove what a company actually knew before an earlier incident. Contemporaneous research and product-specific knowledge must be investigated separately.

Save lives while there is still a life to save

My prevention priorities are treatment, trusted human connection, protection during acute danger, restricted access to lethal means, and dependable follow-up. NIMH identifies listening, helping the person connect, reducing lethal-means access, and ongoing contact as components of prevention.

Treatment can make a measurable difference. A randomized trial of 173 high-risk adolescents found that dialectical behavior therapy reduced repeat attempts and self-harm more than the comparison treatment at the end of treatment. Between-group advantages weakened during follow-up, and the predominantly female sample limits generalization. This supports treatment—not a promise of near-total prevention.

Eyesight supervision means protective observation, not a vague instruction to “keep an eye on” someone. Where indicated, it should be continuous with the ability to intervene promptly. The Joint Commission requires one qualified staff member to one high-risk patient in clinical areas containing ligature or other safety hazards; monitoring in appropriately safer psychiatric areas is governed by organizational policy.

Trusted family members should be active partners. My clinical preference is to use safe, willing, capable relatives whenever home management is appropriate, with clear instructions, relief, and professional backup. The relevant question is whom the young person trusts and whether safety can actually be maintained—not whether the observer wears a uniform. NIMH incorporates family observations, trusted adults, home safety, and urgent evaluation when needed.

That preference is not a claim that family observation has been proved superior to trained staff. A relative who is unsafe, unavailable, or part of an abusive situation is not an appropriate safeguard. Family presence cannot replace required staff observation or necessary emergency care. Supervision must support treatment and reassessment, not substitute for them.

We do not need to wait for a breakthrough before applying existing preventive measures. But the evidence discussed here does not establish that current measures can eliminate nearly every suicide, or justify extrapolating suicide-prevention findings into a guarantee about homicide.

The goal is to prevent every death that can be prevented—not to promise an outcome the evidence cannot support.

Accountability requires evidence. Scapegoating requires only a target.

My concern is that an unsupported corporate-blame narrative may distract from the clinical vulnerabilities, acute crises, and practical protections that deserve attention. Investigating them does not excuse proven corporate wrongdoing. Investigating a product does not justify erasing the rest of the young person’s life.

A defensible expert does not begin by promising a result. The assignment is to identify what is documented, what is disputed, what is missing, and which causal explanation survives examination—including unfavorable facts.

A thin skull is not proof of a blow. A vulnerable mind is not proof of a platform’s causal responsibility.

Find the danger. Treat the illness. Protect the person. Preserve the evidence. Then decide responsibility on the record—not on the size of the defendant’s bank account.

Saving the next life matters more than finding the most convenient target for the last death.

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Count the Crashes, Not Just the Steps: What the Work-From-Home Health Scare Leaves Out

 

Before turning office attendance into a health prescription, count what getting there costs—in lives, injuries, alertness, money, and time.

StudyFinds published an alarming headline: “Why Working From Home May Be Much Worse For Your Health.” Yet the same article acknowledges: “None of this means remote work is bad for health.” That is a substantial gap between the headline and the evidence. (StudyFinds)

A finding about movement is not a verdict on overall health. To reach that verdict, we would need to count both sides: the activity lost at home and the hazards, expenses, and barriers eliminated by not commuting.

Where are the avoided crashes? The recovered sleep? The money workers keep? The experienced employees who remain employed because they no longer have to exhaust themselves getting to an office?

Those are not distractions from the health question. They are part of it.

What the study actually found

Researchers followed 97 Finnish university employees for one week, comparing their office and remote days using thigh-worn sensors. Remote days were associated with approximately 44 additional minutes of sedentary time, 37 fewer minutes of light activity, 21 fewer minutes of moderate-to-vigorous activity, and 14 additional minutes in bed. Those are behavioral measurements—not evidence of increased heart attacks, injuries, or deaths, which were not measured. (Springer Link)

The light-activity category included standing. Consequently, nearly an hour less recorded activity does not mean nearly an hour less exercise. Comparing participants with themselves was a strength, but work location was not randomly assigned, and detailed information about work tasks and home-versus-office conditions was unavailable. Someone might reserve concentrated writing for home and meeting-heavy work for the office. Sensors cannot resolve that possibility by themselves.

Another important detail: 54% usually walked or cycled to work. Eliminating a bicycle commute is not equivalent to eliminating an hour sitting in traffic. That difference matters when applying the findings to car-dependent workers.

The useful question is how remote workers can replace lost activity—not whether an office address should be treated as a medical intervention.

Start with the people who will not die on the road

Commuting is not a risk-free baseline.

Consider an illustrative calculation. Assume a worker eliminates a 30-mile round-trip solo drive on 230 workdays annually, with no replacement driving. That removes 6,900 vehicle-miles each year.

For national benchmarks, NHTSA estimated 1.10 traffic deaths per 100 million vehicle-miles in 2025. Its 2024 report gives an injury rate of 74 injured people per 100 million vehicle-miles. These are rates for all traffic, not specifically commuting. (NHTSA)

Applying those rates proportionately produces the following illustrative annual estimates—not measured remote-work outcomes:

Drivers eliminating those commutesVehicle-miles removed annuallyEstimated deaths avoidedEstimated injuries avoided
1 million6.9 billionAbout 76About 5,100
10 million69 billionAbout 760About 51,000
20 million138 billionAbout 1,520About 102,000

Even a two-day-a-week remote arrangement for 10 million such drivers would produce an estimated reduction of approximately 300 deaths and 20,400 injuries annually under the same assumptions.

These calculations are not precise forecasts. Commuting routes and times have different risks; some people carpool or use transit; remote workers may make additional nonwork trips; and changes in congestion can affect speeds. The estimates cover potential effects across road users, not just the employees themselves, and injuries include different severities.

Nevertheless, the point is unmistakable: the potential safety consequences are large enough to belong in the analysis.

We cannot responsibly count minutes of standing while treating avoidable road trauma as irrelevant.

Driving can make people sleepy—not just transport sleepy people

The commute can also consume alertness.

In a controlled study published in Ergonomics, 15 volunteers completed simulated drives with and without low-frequency seat vibration. Exposure to vibration at 4–7 Hz produced increasing drowsiness and physiological signs of greater effort to remain alert within approximately 15–30 minutes. The investigators described the effect as occurring even among healthy, well-rested participants. (PubMed)

An earlier laboratory study involving 18 volunteers found that 20 minutes of seated vibration increased sleepiness and impaired performance on a psychomotor vigilance test. This was not merely a complaint that driving felt boring; performance was tested. (PubMed)

Separately, driving-simulator research established that prolonged wakefulness can impair performance as seriously as alcohol. Arnedt and colleagues found that 18.5 hours awake produced changes comparable to 0.05% blood-alcohol concentration, while 21 hours awake produced changes comparable to 0.08%, on measures of road position and variability in lane position and speed. The comparison was specific to those tested functions, but the impairment was substantial. (PubMed)

Sleepiness does not become harmless because vibration or monotonous driving helped produce it. Its relevance is the loss of alertness and performance.

The population-level danger is considerable. The AAA Foundation estimated that drowsy drivers were involved in 17.6% of fatal crashes during 2017–2021, with approximately 29,834 deaths over those five years. Those figures cover all types of trips and overlap with—not add to—the traffic deaths already discussed. (AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety)

The additional workplace errors attributable specifically to arriving drowsy after commuting have not been reliably quantified by these studies. But an unmeasured consequence should be investigated, not quietly assigned a value of zero.

Eliminating the commute can function like a substantial raise

Workers do not pay commuting expenses with imaginary money. They pay them from their earnings.

Take an illustrative worker earning $80,000 annually, driving the same 30-mile round trip on 230 days. Assume 30 cents per mile in avoidable vehicle-running expenses, $5 daily in parking or tolls, and $500 in additional annual home-working costs.

Expense changeAnnual financial effect
Avoided driving expenses+$2,070
Avoided parking or tolls+$1,150
Additional home-working expenses−$500
Net money retained+$2,720

At an assumed 25% marginal tax rate on additional wages, retaining $2,720 provides the same spending power as approximately a $3,627 pretax raise—about 4.5% of salary.

The benefit can be larger when more vehicle costs genuinely disappear. For comparison, the IRS business-mileage benchmark for July–December 2026 is 76 cents per mile. Applying that broader benchmark to the same annualized example yields $5,894 after the assumed parking savings and home-working costs—equivalent to approximately a 9.8% pretax raise under the same tax assumption. But that is a broader cost scenario, not guaranteed cash savings: fixed ownership expenses remain when someone keeps the same car. Nor is this calculation a claim that commuting is tax-deductible. (IRS)

The right calculation is individualized. Count expenses actually avoided, subtract additional home expenses, and distinguish reduced running costs from eliminating a vehicle altogether.

Remote work can increase a worker’s spending power without requiring the employer to increase payroll.

Then count the unpaid weeks workers get back

Money is only half the calculation.

A one-hour daily commute over 230 workdays consumes 230 hours annually. That is almost 29 eight-hour days, or 5.75 forty-hour weeks.

Those hours do not appear on the paycheck. They still come out of the worker’s life.

At unchanged salary and an eight-hour workday, eliminating that one-hour commute increases effective compensation per hour of work-plus-commuting time by 12.5%. Eliminating a 90-minute commute increases it by 18.75%; eliminating two hours increases it by 25%.

These are arithmetic comparisons, not salary increases. They describe how much less personal time must be committed to obtain the same pay. They also should not simply be added to the expense-saving percentages above.

There is observational evidence that workers use some recovered time for health-related activities. The UK Office for National Statistics found that people working at home saved an average of 56 commuting minutes on the observed day and spent 24 additional minutes on sleep and rest and 15 additional minutes on exercise, sports, and well-being. Those comparisons do not prove causation, but they show that home working does not inevitably mean abandoning exercise. (Office for National Statistics)

An hour formerly spent in a car could become a 30-minute walk plus 30 minutes returned to the worker. Whether that happens depends on how the day is organized.

The alternative to commuting is not necessarily inactivity.

Loyalty shows up in fewer resignation letters

There is stronger evidence for retention than speculation about how grateful workers might feel.

A six-month randomized trial involving 1,612 employees at Trip.com in China, published in Nature, tested a hybrid arrangement with two home-working days per week. Resignations fell from 7.2% to 4.8%—a one-third relative reduction. Job satisfaction improved, and the study found no adverse effect on its measured performance outcomes. That supports this particular hybrid arrangement, not every possible remote-work model. (PubMed Central (PMC))

Now consider replacement costs.

A figure of 175% of annual salary can be used as an explicit planning assumption for an expensive-to-replace role, but it is not a universal rate. Gallup estimates vary considerably: approximately 40% for frontline workers, 80% for technical professionals, and 200% for leaders and managers. (Gallup.com)

Using the 175% assumption, replacing an $80,000 employee costs $140,000.

A hypothetical 1,000-person employer reproducing the trial’s 2.4-percentage-point difference over six months would avoid approximately 24 departures. At $140,000 per departure, that represents $3.36 million in estimated avoided turnover costs.

That is a scenario, not a guaranteed saving. Turnover estimates may include lost output and management time rather than only immediate cash expenditures.

But the business logic deserves attention: a benefit employees value can also reduce the employer’s costs. Flexibility need not be purchased at the expense of performance.

For some people, working from home means being able to work at all

A person can be unable to tolerate a commute or office environment while remaining fully capable of doing the actual job. EEOC guidance explicitly recognizes that telework may be a reasonable accommodation when disability prevents successful on-site work but the job can be performed at home without undue hardship. (EEOC)

Consider the difference between a job’s productive duties and the physical demands surrounding them.

An employee may be able to review documents, write reports, answer calls, or analyze data, yet struggle with transportation, prolonged travel, an inaccessible building, a rigid schedule, or an environment that aggravates symptoms. Telework can change those surrounding conditions without eliminating the essential work. Accommodation guidance calls for evaluating the actual duties and the individual’s needs, rather than assuming that physical attendance and productive capacity are identical. (Job Accommodation Network)

This is not simply theoretical. A study published in American Economic Review: Insights in June 2026 estimated that the expansion of working from home explained 68–85% of the post-pandemic increase in full-time employment among people with physical disabilities, after accounting for compositional changes and labor-market tightness. That is an econometric estimate, not a randomized result, but it identifies a major potential employment benefit. (American Economic Association)

The implications extend beyond accommodating a single workday: preserving earnings, retaining experience, and allowing people to contribute despite physical limitations.

Eligibility for a legal accommodation remains individualized; essential duties, effectiveness, alternative accommodations, and undue hardship matter. (EEOC)

For some workers, remote work is not a convenience. It is the difference between earning a living and being excluded from employment.

The other benefits do not disappear because a sensor did not measure them

More family and caregiving time. Research across 27 countries found average commuting-time savings of 72 minutes per home-working day, with approximately 11% of saved time allocated to caregiving. Workers also allocated about 40% to their jobs. Recovered time benefited both households and employers. This does not imply that someone can simultaneously provide full-time childcare and perform full-time work. (American Economic Association)

Less exposure to contagious coworkers. Remote capability can help employees avoid bringing respiratory infections into a shared workplace. CDC guidance recommends flexible leave and telework arrangements to support staying home when sick or caring for sick relatives. Someone too ill to work still needs sick leave; remote work should not become an excuse to abolish it. (CDC)

Greater geographic choice and potential productivity benefits. A natural experiment at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office found a 4.4% increase in output without increased rework when employees moved from a geographically restricted work-from-home arrangement to a work-from-anywhere program. The study also documented qualitative evidence of benefits to employees and real-estate savings for the employer. It was a comparison between two remote arrangements, not proof that all remote work outperforms office work. (SMS)

A broader pool of available workers. An employer that can hire beyond a practical daily commuting radius is not restricted to people able and willing to make that journey. EEOC guidance identifies attracting and retaining valuable workers among telework’s potential benefits. (EEOC)

Continuity during disruptions. Remote capability can keep suitable work functioning when weather or other emergencies make offices inaccessible. OPM’s continuity guidance emphasizes preparing equipment, connectivity, and employees before a disruption occurs. (U.S. Office of Personnel Management)

Potentially lower environmental costs. A Cornell–Microsoft study published in PNAS modeled a 54% lower work-related carbon footprint for fully remote workers under its assumptions. The result depended on transportation, office energy, home energy, and lifestyle changes. It was not a universal reduction, but it demonstrates another important outcome that movement tracking alone cannot assess. (PNAS)

None of these benefits requires pretending that every job can be remote or every home provides an adequate workspace. They require recognizing that work arrangements have several consequences, not just one.

Fix the movement problem without pretending the commute is treatment

The sensible response to insufficient movement is to address insufficient movement.

Build opportunities for walking and activity into the workday. Protect breaks. Provide suitable equipment. Make in-person gatherings purposeful rather than treating attendance itself as the outcome.

The Finnish researchers themselves suggested exploring ways to compensate for the observed behavioral differences; they did not establish that returning to the office improves overall health. (Springer Link)

A useful next study would compare well-designed remote work—including planned movement and adequate support—with office work including the entire commute. It would measure activity, sleep, symptoms, injuries, performance, retention, costs, and the ability to remain employed.

That is the comparison needed to assess the whole arrangement.

An office address is not a medical treatment. A commute is not an exercise prescription. And a movement sensor cannot, by itself, tell us which working arrangement produces a better life.

Count the crashes. Count the fatigue. Count the unpaid weeks. Count the money retained. Count the employees who do not resign—and the people who can keep working.

Then assess health. Not merely movement.

Saturday, September 5, 2026

Thrive Now: Advice to My Younger Self—Sex Is Not a Bathroom Break. For adult readers.

 Don’t confuse satisfying an urge with satisfying a partner.

My assessment, from experience, is blunt: a young man may approach sex like a bathroom function—seven minutes, relief, finished. Making the experience outstanding for a woman can mean thinking in hours, not minutes.

That does not mean hours of nonstop intercourse. It means affection, conversation, flirtation, anticipation, kissing, and unhurried attention beginning well beforehand.

Understand the difference and adjust your behavior accordingly. Your timetable is not automatically hers. My comparison is a reminder to invest attention, not a biological timetable for every person or encounter.

Study Instead of Guessing

My advice to my younger adult self: explore Alex Grendi’s YouTube channel as one starting point for learning about intimacy. His lesson subjects range from female pleasure and kissing to ejaculation control and sexual confidence.

There is more to becoming a good lover than learning how to last longer. Study female anatomy, desire, arousal, orgasm, comfort, and the different ways people enjoy affection and touch.

Treat intimacy as something worth learning about—not something you should automatically understand because you have reached adulthood or accumulated sexual experience.

Experience and understanding are not the same thing. Repeating the same mistakes for twenty years is not twenty years of education.

Both Sexes Have Something to Learn

There is a great deal to learn about female sexual function, and both sexes would benefit from studying it.

Do not assume that being female automatically makes someone fully informed about female sexuality. Do not assume that being male—or sexually experienced—makes someone knowledgeable about a woman’s pleasure.

Education should flow in both directions. A woman can teach her partner, and an informed man can share something his partner has not encountered. When one person knows something the other does not, explain it kindly, share trustworthy educational material, and explore the subject together.

There is no shame in not knowing. Make it comfortable to ask questions and change your understanding.

But distinguish between sharing knowledge and claiming authority over someone else’s experience. You can explain an anatomical fact; you cannot tell another person what they must enjoy.

Study the subject together, then learn each other.

Alex Grendi’s Lesson Subjects—with Video Links

These are selected lessons, not a complete catalogue. The linked titles identify the videos; their promotional wording should not be mistaken for guaranteed results.

Lesson subjectVideo
KissingHow to French Kiss Like a Pro! (Step By Step Guide).
Massage and unhurried touchSensual Massage Mastery: 7 Moves That Will Make Her Scream!.
Clitoral stimulationClitoris Stimulation Mastery: 9 Moves That Will Make Her Scream!.
G-spot-focused stimulationG-Spot Stimulation Mastery: 7 Moves That Will Make Her Scream!.
Breast stimulationBreast Play 101: How To Drive Her Wild With Pleasure.
Oral sex and female pleasureHow to Eat Her Out: 5 Tips for AMAZING Oral Sex.
Movement and pacing during intercourseThrust Like This to Last Longer During Sex.
Ejaculation controlHow to Last Longer During Sex Naturally.
Masturbation habits and partnered sexual function7 Masturbation Hacks for Men to Last Longer in Bed.
Pelvic-floor exercisesTry THESE Kegel Exercises To LAST LONGER in Bed.
Performance anxietyHow To Overcome Performance Anxiety In The Bedroom (Simple Techniques).
Erection difficulties—his proposed coaching approachHow To Cure Erectile Dysfunction FAST (& For Good!). The “cure” wording is his title, not a medical conclusion established here.
Squirting6 Steps to Give Her a Squirting Orgasm.
Multiple orgasms in menMultiple Orgasms for Men (3 Biggest Tricks & DEMO).
Communication, feedback, shame, and sexual expectationsSex: How to Be Better at It and Get More of What You Want—his Order of Man video interview. The publisher specifically lists asking for feedback and communicating one’s own desires among the subjects discussed.

Use these videos to identify subjects worth learning about, not as instructions that every partner must follow. Learn from the educator; listen to the person you are with.

Think Beyond the Few Minutes of Intercourse

Do not save all your warmth and attention for the moment you want sex.

Put the phone away. Be interested in her day. Offer affection without immediately demanding something in return. Flirt. Give a sincere compliment. Make room for anticipation.

The point is not to spend hours completing a checklist. It is to stop treating everything before intercourse as an obstacle to the main event.

Make the whole experience the main event.

Give affection freely, not as a down payment that obligates your partner to have sex. The aim is a mutually desired experience—not collecting a debt.

Ask, Listen, and Adjust

A video cannot tell you what your particular partner enjoys. Ask.

“What feels good to you?” and “Would you like something different?” are more useful starting points than “Wasn’t that great?”

Listen without getting defensive. When your partner suggests a change, welcome the information rather than treating it as a failing grade.

Feedback is information, not an insult.

Share your own preferences, too. Neither partner should have to guess everything or carry the entire responsibility for teaching, initiating, and creating a satisfying experience.

Replace the Stopwatch With Attention

Do not turn intimacy into an endurance contest. Do not demand a particular orgasm, a dramatic reaction, or a performance that resembles a video.

Pay attention to comfort, enthusiasm, and enjoyment. Be willing to slow down, change direction, or stop. Do not assume that your own climax automatically marks the end of the shared experience.

Keep medical problems separate from performance promises. Persistent erection difficulties can involve physical conditions, medication effects, or psychological factors; they warrant appropriate medical assessment rather than an assumed quick cure from a video.

The goal is not to prove that you know every technique. It is to help create an experience both people enjoy and look forward to repeating.

Less ego. More study. Better communication.

Don’t mistake your relief for mutual satisfaction. Learn enough to contribute, listen enough to adapt, and give the whole experience the attention it deserves.

Thursday, September 3, 2026

 

Thrive Now: What Attraction Is Really Seeking

Attraction has biological roots. Many women are drawn to men who signal strength, confidence, competence, and the ability to protect and provide. Many men are drawn to women who signal health, warmth, and the capacity to nurture.

Runway fashion is different from everyday attraction. Models are chosen to display clothing—not to represent everyone’s romantic ideal.

Appearance may open the door, but feelings decide what happens next. People want partners who make life better: someone supportive, peaceful, affectionate, and dependable.

My advice to my younger self: look beyond beauty. Choose the person who brings out your best—and become that person for someone else.

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Thrive Now, Advice to Your Younger Self, Relationships: The Law of Social Equity

 Successful couples usually perceive themselves as bringing roughly equal total value to the relationship—but that value does not have to come from the same qualities. A wealthy, successful man who is not conventionally handsome may attract a beautiful woman of modest means. A handsome young man without money may attract someone because of his looks, intelligence, confidence, humor, ambition, or future potential.

This is what is called the Law of Social Equity: relationships are most stable when both partners believe the exchange is reasonably balanced.

When one partner’s perceived social value changes dramatically, the relationship may change with it. Imagine two struggling actors waiting tables together. If one suddenly lands a million-dollar role and becomes famous, the couple’s balance is disrupted. The relationship may survive, but it will face pressures that did not previously exist. As Marilyn Monroe’s modeling career took off, for example, her marriage to merchant seaman James Dougherty ended.

Celebrity may be the most powerful form of social status. It can make even destructive or dangerous people strangely attractive, which helps explain why notorious imprisoned killers sometimes receive love letters and marriage proposals.

Money—and the realistic prospect of earning it—is another powerful source of attraction. Future earning potential is suggested not merely by intelligence, but also by discipline, ambition, judgment, competence, and social skill. Wit can be especially attractive because a clever, unexpected remark displays intelligence in real time. That is different from incessant clowning, which may make a person appear immature or desperate for attention.

Physical attractiveness also matters. A handsome face, a healthy body, good grooming, and confident posture can substantially increase perceived value. Much of male competition for achievement, status, money, and physical fitness is connected, at least partly, to the desire to attract desirable partners.

The greatest losses of relationship value often come from untreated destructive behavior: criminal conduct, addiction, uncontrolled aggression, or severe psychiatric symptoms that a person refuses to address. A diagnosis alone does not make someone unlovable. Refusing treatment while repeatedly harming or frightening a partner does. Even a devoted partner eventually reaches a limit.

The lesson is not to treat love as a cold financial transaction. It is to understand that attraction responds to value, stability, and change. Develop the qualities within your control: health, competence, humor, reliability, ambition, kindness, and sound judgment. Then choose someone who values what you bring—and whose contributions you genuinely value in return.

Thrive Now: Advice to My Young Self—Start Investing Now

 If I could give my younger self one piece of financial advice, it would be simple:

Start investing your savings immediately.

Do not wait until you earn more. Do not wait until you understand every financial term. Do not wait for the “right time” to enter the market. The great advantage of being young is not having a large income. It is having time.

Let Time Do the Work

Money invested today may have 40, 50, or even 60 years to grow. Over that enormous span, the Dow Jones Industrial Average may rise to many times its present level—perhaps even 200 times its current value during an exceptionally strong period.

That is not a prediction or guarantee. It illustrates the astonishing potential of long-term compounding. Small amounts invested early can become more valuable than much larger amounts invested late.

Your first dollars may be the most important dollars you ever invest.

You Do Not Have to Become a Stock Expert

If you enjoy studying businesses, accounting, and financial markets, learn how to evaluate individual investments carefully.

If you do not want to make investing a hobby, you do not have to. Consider putting your long-term savings into a low-cost, broadly diversified index fund. An index fund spreads your money among many companies instead of depending on your ability to select one future winner.

The SEC explains that index funds generally follow a passive strategy and may offer lower expenses, although investors should always examine a fund’s actual fees and risks. Even apparently small fees can substantially reduce returns over several decades. (Investor.gov)

Use a tax-advantaged retirement account when one is available. If your employer offers matching contributions, try to contribute enough to receive the entire match. Otherwise, you are leaving part of your compensation behind.

The Most Important Rule: Do Not Panic

The stock market will fall. Sometimes it will fall sharply. Headlines will predict disaster. Commentators will announce that everything has changed. Your account balance may drop so quickly that you feel physically sick.

That is when many inexperienced investors make their most damaging mistake: they sell after prices have already fallen.

A temporary decline becomes a permanent personal loss when you panic and sell low. FINRA notes that passive, periodic investing can help people avoid emotional reactions and abandoning their plans during volatility. (FINRA)

Do not treat a falling account statement as proof that your plan has failed. If you own a diversified index fund for a distant retirement, remember why you bought it.

Your younger self should follow a simple rule:

Do not sell merely because the market frightened you.

Big Drops Can Be Buying Opportunities

When stores reduce prices, customers celebrate. When the stock market reduces prices, many investors run away.

Young investors should think differently. A major decline allows each new contribution to purchase more shares. If you still have decades before retirement, a broad market drop may be an opportunity to invest more—not a signal to flee.

During a large decline, invest as much additional money as you can genuinely spare. “Spare” is the essential word. Keep an emergency fund. Pay your necessary expenses. Do not invest the rent money, borrow recklessly, or use money you will soon need.

No one can identify the exact bottom. Do not try. Continue buying regularly, and consider increasing your contributions when prices are substantially lower.

Make Investing Automatic

The best investment plan is often boring:

  1. Build an emergency reserve.

  2. Pay off extremely expensive debt.

  3. Contribute regularly to a retirement account.

  4. Choose a diversified, low-cost index fund appropriate for your time horizon.

  5. Automate every contribution.

  6. Increase the amount whenever your income rises.

  7. Refuse to panic during market declines.

  8. Leave the money alone for decades.

You will see bubbles, crashes, recessions, wars, elections, scandals, and frightening predictions. You will repeatedly hear convincing reasons why “this time is different.”

Your greatest advantage will not be knowing the future. It will be refusing to let fear destroy a long-term plan.

The Gift Your Younger Self Can Give You

A young person may think that $25, $50, or $100 is too little to matter. That is backward. The amount can grow, but lost time can never be recovered.

Start with what you have. Add to it whenever you can. Buy broadly. Keep costs low. Let dividends and gains compound. When the market falls, keep your head—and, if your finances permit, buy more.

Then allow your older self to receive the gift that only your younger self could provide: decades of uninterrupted growth.

This article provides general financial education, not individualized investment advice. Index funds can lose value, and past market performance does not guarantee future results.

Thrive Now, Advice to Young Self: A Great Kisser Pays Attention: The Back-Scratch Lesson

 Teen advice about kissing usually focuses on lips, technique, and avoiding awkward mistakes. But what often makes affection memorable is much simpler: noticing what would make the other person feel comfortable.

Suppose you are making out and your partner mentions that their back is itchy or dry. Because the back is difficult to reach, gently scratching the itchy area can be surprisingly soothing. You might say:

“Show me where it itches. Do you want me to scratch it gently?”

Use clean, short fingernails and moderate pressure. The goal is to relieve an itch—not leave scratches or marks. Ask whether the pressure feels right instead of assuming.

If the skin is dry, you could also offer:

“Would you like me to put some moisturizer on your back? It’s hard to reach that spot yourself.”

Applying moisturizer can be affectionate because it combines physical closeness with genuine care. Use a plain, fragrance-free moisturizer when possible, warm it between your hands, and rub it in gently. Do not apply products to broken, painful, or badly inflamed skin, and never use someone else’s prescription cream.

The larger lesson is that being good at affection is not about performing a complicated technique. It is about paying attention, communicating, and responding to the other person as an individual. A considerate partner notices discomfort, asks before touching, listens to the answer, and adjusts.

Not everyone will want their back scratched or moisturizer applied. Some people dislike certain sensations, have sensitive skin, or simply do not want that kind of touch. A brief question preserves the caring nature of the gesture:

  • “Would that feel good?”

  • “Is this pressure okay?”

  • “Do you want me to stop?”

  • “Would you rather have lotion?”

If the itching is severe, keeps returning, disturbs sleep, or comes with a rash, swelling, bleeding, or signs of infection, scratching is not the solution. The person should tell a parent, school nurse, pharmacist, or healthcare professional.

A back scratch may sound like a small thing—and it is. But healthy relationships are largely made from small things: noticing, asking, helping, and respecting the answer. The best affection communicates, “I enjoy being close to you, and I care whether you are comfortable.”

Medicine in Failure: The Broken Hospital Window: Why Eliminating Healthcare Waste Makes America Richer

 

Proposals to cut healthcare costs are often described as if hundreds of billions of dollars could simply be erased from an accounting ledger. That is not what happens.

Every dollar of healthcare spending becomes revenue for somebody: a hospital, physician, pharmaceutical company, insurer, law firm, landlord, billing contractor, construction company or government agency. Cutting $300 billion in costs means that some of those recipients will earn less. Offices will close. Buildings will lose tenants. Some jobs will disappear.

That disruption is real. But it does not follow that waste is valuable merely because someone is paid to produce it.

If a preventable medical error inflicts terrible pain on a patient and the hospital then bills $500,000 to repair the damage, measured gross domestic product increases. Economically, however, the country is poorer. The patient has suffered, the family has been disrupted, work has been lost and scarce medical resources have been consumed repairing an injury that should never have occurred.

This is the healthcare version of the broken-window fallacy: breaking a window creates employment for the glazier, but society would have been richer if the window had never been broken.

What does “saving $300 billion” actually mean?

The reform program previously proposed identified approximately $300 billion in potential annual economic benefits. But that figure contains three very different categories:

CategoryEstimated annual valuePractical meaning
Expenditures and property losses avoided$100B–$140BRevenue actually disappears
Worker and clinician productivity recovered$140B–$150BExisting people produce more useful work
Value of lives and health preservedPotentially $1.5T or moreSocial value, not a government budget saving

Only the first category directly eliminates existing spending. Productivity improvements do not necessarily fire anyone. They allow the same workforce to treat more patients, reduce waiting times or spend more time on useful care.

The value of a life saved is not money transferred to the government. It is the economic value society places on reducing the risk of death, pain and disability.

These categories must be kept separate. Otherwise, an economic benefit is falsely presented as a budget saving, or a real reduction in revenue is falsely presented as painless efficiency.

Could healthcare reform eliminate one million jobs?

Potentially—but not necessarily, and certainly not all at once.

The private healthcare sector employs approximately 18.5 million people, including about 9.2 million in ambulatory care, 5.8 million in hospitals and 3.5 million in nursing and residential facilities. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

At a fully loaded employment cost of $80,000 to $100,000:

  • Eliminating $40 billion in payroll corresponds to approximately 400,000 to 500,000 positions.
  • Eliminating $70 billion corresponds to approximately 700,000 to 875,000 positions.
  • Eliminating one million $100,000 positions would reduce annual costs by approximately $100 billion.

Because only a portion of the $100 billion to $140 billion in direct savings consists of payroll, the initial employment effect would probably be several hundred thousand positions rather than an automatic one million layoffs.

A comprehensive restructuring could eventually approach one million affected jobs when employment in insurance, billing, law, pharmaceutical marketing, commercial real estate, automobile repair, construction and criminal justice is included.

But “affected” does not necessarily mean fired. BLS projects approximately 1.9 million healthcare occupational openings every year, including openings created when workers retire or leave their occupations. A five-year transition could therefore eliminate many unnecessary positions by declining to replace departing workers while transferring others into understaffed patient-care services. (BLS Occupational Outlook)

Which jobs would contract?

The greatest reductions should occur in activities that exist because the system is unnecessarily expensive and complicated:

  • Billing, coding and claims processing
  • Prior authorization and repetitive utilization review
  • Manual medical-record transcription and clerical documentation
  • Defensive tests and procedures performed primarily because of litigation risk
  • Malpractice litigation and expert-witness services
  • Pharmaceutical sales, marketing and monopoly-protection activities
  • Duplicate management and compliance departments
  • Reception, parking and facility operations for visits that can safely occur through telehealth
  • Treatment and rehabilitation required by preventable medical injuries
  • Emergency, correctional and legal activity associated with preventable addiction and drug crime
  • Automobile repair and medical treatment resulting from preventable crashes

Some clinical jobs would also be affected. If unnecessary procedures disappear, clinicians and facilities that derive revenue from those procedures will lose income. A serious cost-reduction policy cannot promise that every existing provider will retain the same revenue.

The relevant distinction is not between healthcare workers and administrative workers. It is between activities that improve patients’ lives and activities that consume money without producing comparable benefit.

Offices and buildings would close

Telehealth, AI-generated documentation, fewer unnecessary appointments and better prevention would reduce the need for physical facilities.

More than three million people currently work in physicians’ offices, and approximately 1.2 million work in outpatient centers. (BLS)

The likely consequences would include:

  • Consolidation of medical offices
  • Nonrenewal of commercial leases
  • Smaller waiting rooms and administrative suites
  • Fewer new medical-office buildings
  • Reduced demand for reception, parking, security, cleaning and utilities
  • Conversion of surplus offices into housing or other commercial uses
  • Lower values for buildings designed around high-volume office attendance

Patients would save travel time, fuel, parking fees and unpaid time away from work. Personnel could be paid more from money previously spent maintaining buildings that contribute nothing to the outcome of a remote encounter.

The cost of a building is not free merely because it is included in the physician’s overhead and ultimately hidden inside an insurance premium.

Hospitals would lose revenue by becoming safer

Preventing medical errors means fewer additional hospital days, repeat operations, infections, readmissions and rehabilitation admissions.

Under fee-for-service payment, a hospital can earn more revenue when a patient develops an expensive complication. The institution may not have caused the complication intentionally, but the payment structure rewards additional activity rather than prevention.

A successful safety program would therefore produce:

  • Fewer occupied beds
  • Reduced revenue from treating preventable complications
  • Closure or consolidation of persistently underused units
  • Reduced demand for some procedural and rehabilitation capacity
  • Repurposing of beds for psychiatric care, long-term care and other unmet needs
  • Greater use of payment based on outcomes rather than the number of services delivered

A safer hospital could report lower revenue and make a smaller contribution to measured GDP while producing vastly greater human value.

Revenue is not health. Expenditure is not success.

The disruption would extend beyond hospitals

Healthcare reform would affect industries throughout the economy.

Law firms would lose malpractice revenue. Insurers would require fewer claims processors and prior-authorization employees. Drug companies would lose some monopoly income. Commercial landlords would lose medical tenants. Construction companies would build fewer medical offices. Automatic braking would reduce automobile-repair work. Successful addiction prevention would reduce demand for emergency care, policing, courts and correctional facilities.

Local communities dependent upon a large hospital or medical complex could experience substantial economic disruption. Commercial property values and local tax receipts could fall.

Those effects should be acknowledged rather than concealed. But preserving preventable disease to support local employment would be equivalent to preserving automobile crashes to support body shops.

Workers deserve transitional assistance. Waste does not deserve permanent protection.

A responsible employment transition

Reform should be implemented over several years and include:

  • Attrition and hiring reductions before involuntary layoffs
  • Transfer of workers into nursing, primary care, psychiatry, home care and elder care
  • Retraining for medical-safety investigation and direct patient assistance
  • Temporary wage insurance and relocation assistance
  • Conversion of surplus medical buildings into housing
  • Sharing administrative and facility savings with frontline personnel
  • Public reporting showing whether savings reached patients and taxpayers

The goal should not be unemployment. It should be moving labor from the machinery of billing, error and illness into useful care and other productive industries.

What is the economic value of preventing fatal medical errors?

The number of preventable hospital deaths remains disputed.

A modern systematic review estimated approximately 22,165 preventable inpatient deaths annually. The older Institute of Medicine estimate ranged from 44,000 to 98,000. Much higher estimates have been published, but they are too uncertain to use as the principal basis for national calculations. (PubMed, AHRQ Patient Safety Network)

The Department of Transportation currently uses $14.2 million as its 2025 value of a statistical life. This is not the price of an identifiable person or a proposed payment to a family. It measures the aggregate value people place on reducing mortality risks. (Department of Transportation)

At $14.2 million per life:

Preventable deathsEconomic value
22,165$315 billion
44,000$625 billion
75,000$1.065 trillion
98,000$1.392 trillion

If an aviation-style safety program eliminated 90% rather than literally every preventable fatal error, approximately 19,949 to 88,200 lives would be preserved annually.

Their gross statistical value would be approximately $283 billion to $1.25 trillion.

But survivors will require future healthcare

A complete calculation must include the additional medical care used during the years of life preserved.

Assume:

  • Each survivor lives ten additional years.
  • Medical spending averages $25,000 annually.
  • Future costs are discounted at 3%.

The present value of that future spending is:

[
$25,000 \times 8.53=$213,255
]

The net value per life saved is therefore:

[
$14,200,000-$213,255=\boxed{$13,986,745}
]

Future medical spending reduces the standard statistical value by only about 1.5%.

Death estimateLives saved at 90%Gross valueFuture healthcareNet value
22,16519,949$283.3B−$4.3B$279.0B
44,00039,600$562.3B−$8.4B$553.9B
75,00067,500$958.5B−$14.4B$944.1B
98,00088,200$1.252T−$18.8B$1.234T

The major uncertainty is not future medical spending. It is how many deaths are genuinely preventable and how long those patients would otherwise have lived.

A more conservative life-years calculation

Many hospital patients are older or already seriously ill. Critics may therefore object to applying the full population-average statistical-life value.

A conservative alternative values only the additional years actually preserved.

HHS uses a central estimate of approximately $495,000 per statistical life-year in sensitivity analysis. Subtracting $25,000 in annual healthcare spending leaves a net annual benefit of $470,000. The discounted value over ten years is:

[
($495,000-$25,000)\times8.53
=\boxed{$4.009\text{ million per survivor}}
]

Using this method:

Preventable-death estimateLives saved at 90%Conservative net value
22,16519,949$80.0B
44,00039,600$158.8B
75,00067,500$270.6B
98,00088,200$353.6B

HHS also uses approximately $591,000 as its central value per quality-adjusted life-year, allowing analysts to value reductions in disability, pain and impaired functioning. (HHS standard values)

Even under the conservative life-years approach, approaching aviation-level medical safety produces between $80 billion and $354 billion in net annual value from fatal errors alone.

Injury and pain create additional losses

Deaths are only part of the medical-error burden. Federal investigators found that approximately 13% of hospitalized Medicare patients experienced preventable harm in the month studied. (HHS Office of Inspector General)

Preventable injuries can cause:

  • Permanent neurological disability
  • Loss of mobility or independence
  • Additional operations
  • Hospital-acquired infections
  • Amputations and organ damage
  • Months or years of severe pain
  • Inability to work
  • Family caregiving
  • Depression, anxiety and traumatic memories

If preventing medical errors restored 100,000 quality-adjusted life-years, the HHS central valuation would be approximately $59 billion. Restoring 500,000 would be worth approximately $296 billion.

A reliable national estimate of error-related QALYs does not yet exist, so these are illustrations rather than proven savings. Nevertheless, any calculation limited to deaths necessarily understates the complete burden.

Returning patients to productive work

Patients who avoid death or disability can return to work, produce goods and services, pay taxes and support their families. Caregivers also regain time.

The calculation is:

[
\text{Workers restored}
\times
\text{annual output}
\times
\text{remaining work years}
]

For example:

Workers restoredAnnual outputWork yearsProduction restored
10,000$75,00010$7.5B
25,000$75,00010$18.75B
50,000$75,00010$37.5B

These earnings should be reported separately rather than automatically added to the statistical value of life, which already reflects much of the value people place on continued living and working. Otherwise, the analysis would double-count part of the benefit.

For government budgeting, however, increased payroll and income-tax receipts and reduced disability payments are legitimate separate fiscal effects.

Future health spending is not a reason to tolerate death

It is true that a dead patient incurs no future Medicare costs. It is equally true that the patient produces no future work, purchases no goods, pays no taxes, enjoys no relationships and experiences no additional life.

Saving a person may increase future Social Security and medical spending. That is a fiscal cost, but it is not proof that death is economically desirable.

Healthcare used during additional years of worthwhile life is not the same as healthcare wasted repairing a preventable injury. One buys health and longevity. The other attempts to restore what an avoidable mistake destroyed.

The correct equation is:

[
\begin{aligned}
\text{Net benefit}={}&
\text{value of deaths prevented}\
&+\text{value of disability and pain prevented}\
&+\text{direct error-treatment costs avoided}\
&+\text{production restored}\
&-\text{safety-program costs}\
&-\text{future healthcare consumed}
\end{aligned}
]

Using the lowest modern death estimate, a 90% reduction produces:

  • Approximately $279 billion under the standard federal statistical-life method after future healthcare costs
  • Approximately $80 billion under the conservative ten-year life-years method
  • Another $26 billion to $45 billion in potentially avoidable treatment costs
  • Additional, presently unquantified value from preventing nonfatal injury, pain and disability

Under the older high death estimate, the standard net mortality benefit exceeds $1.2 trillion annually.

Who should receive the savings?

Savings do not automatically reach the public. They can be retained by insurers, hospital systems or intermediaries unless policy determines where they go.

A proper reform should require:

  • Medicare and Medicaid savings to reduce taxes, deficits or beneficiary costs
  • Private-insurance savings to reduce premiums or produce rebates
  • Employer-plan savings to increase wages or reduce employee contributions
  • Administrative and building savings to increase frontline compensation
  • Generic-drug savings to reach consumers rather than being captured by intermediaries
  • Public reporting of savings, layoffs, facility closures and patient outcomes

The people who bear the disruption should be visible, but so should the people currently paying for waste through taxes, premiums, lower wages, pain, disability and premature death.

The bottom line

Cutting healthcare costs is not painless. Several hundred thousand positions could eventually disappear or never be created. Medical offices and hospital units would close. Landlords, law firms, billing companies, insurers and drug manufacturers would lose revenue.

That is the unavoidable meaning of eliminating real spending.

But waste does not become economically valuable because it employs people. A system that injures patients and then employs thousands of people to treat, bill and litigate the injuries is not creating wealth. It is consuming wealth while imposing suffering.

The right objective is not to preserve every existing healthcare dollar. It is to preserve every activity that produces more health than it costs, eliminate activities that do not, compensate workers during the transition and return the resulting savings to patients and the public.

Preventing medical errors alone could create $80 billion to more than $1.2 trillion in annual net value, depending on the death estimate and valuation method—even after paying the future healthcare costs of the people whose lives are saved.

That is not austerity. It is exchanging preventable suffering for longer lives, greater production and a richer country.